Does Aroon trend actually work on TSLA? We tested it
We ran Aroon trend on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 85 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a solid profit of 432.91% over its life, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a brutal 55.27% drawdown that lasted over two years from mid-2017 to late 2019, which would have tested anyone's patience. With only 23 trades and a 34.78% win rate, the result is heavily driven by a few big winners, since the average winning trade returned 13.61%. The entry timing is strong, beating 85% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is carrying most of the weight here rather than the exits. The edge was not consistent, as it was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, meaning one stretch of good trades made the overall result look much better than the typical experience.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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