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Trend · TSLA · 1D

Does Aroon trend actually work on TSLA? We tested it

We ran Aroon trend on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 85 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +432.9%
Win rate 34.8%
Max drawdown −55.3%
Trades 23
Sharpe 0.81
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +280.8% 2.01 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +81.5% 1.10 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 −13.4% −0.79 2
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +11.0% 0.39 5
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.68. Worst period −13.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

TSLA SHIPPED
85/100 EDGE
GOOGL
96/100 EDGE
GLD
96/100 EDGE
RIOT
87/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
89/100 NONE
SMCI
85/100 NONE
MU
68/100 NONE
NFLX
67/100 NONE
AMD
66/100 NONE
AMZN
60/100 NONE
COIN
57/100 NONE
IWM
55/100 NONE
META
55/100 NONE
QQQ
53/100 NONE
UBER
47/100 NONE
NVDA
46/100 NONE
AVGO
46/100 NONE
MSTR
36/100 NONE
SPY
33/100 NONE
AAPL
33/100 NONE
MSFT
32/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
JPM
18/100 NONE
DIA
13/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
XOM
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen AROON up line of close over 25 bars crosses above AROON down line of close over 25 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (AROON down line of close over 25 bars crosses above AROON up line of close over 25 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a solid profit of 432.91% over its life, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a brutal 55.27% drawdown that lasted over two years from mid-2017 to late 2019, which would have tested anyone's patience. With only 23 trades and a 34.78% win rate, the result is heavily driven by a few big winners, since the average winning trade returned 13.61%. The entry timing is strong, beating 85% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is carrying most of the weight here rather than the exits. The edge was not consistent, as it was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, meaning one stretch of good trades made the overall result look much better than the typical experience.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.