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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does Aroon trend actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran Aroon trend on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 87 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +7400.7%
Win rate 50.0%
Max drawdown −57.1%
Trades 20
Sharpe 1.14
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +4.1% 0.70 1
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +971.0% 2.00 4
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +36.0% 0.66 5
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +26.7% 0.59 6
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.99. Worst period +4.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
87/100 EDGE
GOOGL
96/100 EDGE
GLD
96/100 EDGE
TSLA
85/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
89/100 NONE
SMCI
85/100 NONE
MU
68/100 NONE
NFLX
67/100 NONE
AMD
66/100 NONE
AMZN
60/100 NONE
COIN
57/100 NONE
IWM
55/100 NONE
META
55/100 NONE
QQQ
53/100 NONE
UBER
47/100 NONE
NVDA
46/100 NONE
AVGO
46/100 NONE
MSTR
36/100 NONE
SPY
33/100 NONE
AAPL
33/100 NONE
MSFT
32/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
JPM
18/100 NONE
DIA
13/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
XOM
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen AROON up line of close over 25 bars crosses above AROON down line of close over 25 bars AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (AROON down line of close over 25 bars crosses above AROON up line of close over 25 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a huge amount of money, turning a 7,400% total return on just 20 trades over several years. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a brutal 57% drawdown that lasted over two years, meaning you would have watched most of your profits vanish and sat through a long, painful losing stretch. The worst damage came between late 2023 and early 2026, which is where the strategy struggled the most. The entry timing is clearly doing the heavy lifting here, since real entries beat 87% of random entry runs, so getting in at the right moment is what drives the profit, not the exits. The edge is also consistent, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk forward periods, so the result is not just a fluke from one lucky streak.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.