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Busted · QQQ · 1D

Does Golden cross actually work? We tested it

We ran Golden cross through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. Best showing 99 of 100 vs random on QQQ, but only 4 trades in a decade. A high score on too few signals is a coin flip, not an edge, so it clears the bar on no ticker we ran it on.

BUSTED NO EDGE FOUND
Vs random 99/100
Win rate 100.0%
Return +269.6%
Max drawdown −28.6%
Trades 4
Why it fails

Best showing 99 of 100 vs random on QQQ, but only 4 trades in a decade. A high score on too few signals is a coin flip, not an edge, so it clears the bar on no ticker we ran it on.

Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +35.6% 0.91 2
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 n/a n/a 0
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +65.7% 2.38 1
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +31.2% 1.30 1
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.53. Worst period +31.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 0 of 28

The same rules on all 28 tickers. The entry never beats random timing by enough to call it an edge.

Show every ticker we tested
JPM
68/100 NONE
DIA
67/100 NONE
MU
58/100 NONE
XOM
45/100 NONE
TSLA
41/100 NONE
AMZN
30/100 NONE
IWM
29/100 NONE
BA
10/100 NONE
QQQ
too new TOO NEW
NVDA
too new TOO NEW
GOOGL
too new TOO NEW
SPY
too new TOO NEW
AMD
too new TOO NEW
GLD
too new TOO NEW
AAPL
too new TOO NEW
MSTR
too new TOO NEW
META
too new TOO NEW
MSFT
too new TOO NEW
AVGO
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
UBER
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
NFLX
too new TOO NEW
MARA
too new TOO NEW
RIOT
too new TOO NEW
SMCI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen SMA of close over 50 bars crosses above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (SMA of close over 50 bars crosses below SMA of close over 200 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Do not take our word for it.

Sign up free, run it yourself, and see if you can find the edge we couldn't.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.