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Busted · PLTR · 1D

Does Wilder DMI cross actually work? We tested it

We ran Wilder DMI cross through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. Best showing 98 of 100 vs random on PLTR, but only 10 trades in a decade and just 2 of 4 periods positive. A high score on too few signals is a coin flip, not an edge, so it clears the bar on no ticker we ran it on.

BUSTED NO EDGE FOUND
Vs random 98/100
Win rate 60.0%
Return +247.9%
Max drawdown −41.9%
Trades 10
Why it fails

Best showing 98 of 100 vs random on PLTR, but only 10 trades in a decade and just 2 of 4 periods positive. A high score on too few signals is a coin flip, not an edge, so it clears the bar on no ticker we ran it on.

Equity curve

Equity curve over Sep 2020 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Nov 2021 to Jan 2023 −0.1% 0.07 1
2 Jan 2023 to Mar 2024 n/a n/a 0
3 Mar 2024 to May 2025 +69.1% 1.59 3
4 May 2025 to Jul 2026 +1.2% 1.02 1
2 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.89. Worst period −0.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 0 of 28

The same rules on all 28 tickers. The entry never beats random timing by enough to call it an edge.

Show every ticker we tested
AAPL
79/100 NONE
SPY
69/100 NONE
NFLX
67/100 NONE
QQQ
65/100 NONE
XOM
65/100 NONE
MSFT
62/100 NONE
RIOT
51/100 NONE
IWM
42/100 NONE
GLD
42/100 NONE
MARA
35/100 NONE
AVGO
33/100 NONE
MU
33/100 NONE
UBER
33/100 NONE
GOOGL
19/100 NONE
META
19/100 NONE
JPM
14/100 NONE
BA
14/100 NONE
SMCI
12/100 NONE
TSLA
11/100 NONE
NVDA
6/100 NONE
MSTR
4/100 NONE
AMD
1/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
DIA
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
AMZN
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen ADX +DI of close over 14 bars crosses above ADX -DI of close over 14 bars AND ADX line of close over 14 bars is above 25
Exitwhen a signal fires (ADX +DI of close over 14 bars crosses below ADX -DI of close over 14 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.