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Busted · HOOD · 1D

Does 52-week high breakout actually work? We tested it

We ran 52-week high breakout through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. Best showing 95 of 100 vs random on HOOD, but only 6 trades in a decade. A high score on too few signals is a coin flip, not an edge, so it clears the bar on no ticker we ran it on.

BUSTED NO EDGE FOUND
Vs random 95/100
Win rate 66.7%
Return +172.2%
Max drawdown −29.7%
Trades 6
Why it fails

Best showing 95 of 100 vs random on HOOD, but only 6 trades in a decade. A high score on too few signals is a coin flip, not an edge, so it clears the bar on no ticker we ran it on.

Equity curve

Equity curve over Jul 2021 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 −2.9% −1.45 1
2 Jul 2023 to Jul 2024 +29.7% 1.24 2
3 Jul 2024 to Jul 2025 +117.6% 2.26 3
4 Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 +10.6% 0.56 1
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.65. Worst period −2.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 0 of 28

The same rules on all 28 tickers. The entry never beats random timing by enough to call it an edge.

Show every ticker we tested
NFLX
90/100 NONE
GLD
87/100 NONE
MU
73/100 NONE
MSTR
70/100 NONE
UBER
46/100 NONE
AMD
38/100 NONE
MSFT
29/100 NONE
GOOGL
23/100 NONE
AVGO
23/100 NONE
IWM
22/100 NONE
AMZN
16/100 NONE
BA
15/100 NONE
META
8/100 NONE
NVDA
3/100 NONE
SPY
1/100 NONE
QQQ
1/100 NONE
JPM
1/100 NONE
DIA
0/100 NONE
AAPL
0/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
RIOT
too new TOO NEW
TSLA
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
MARA
too new TOO NEW
XOM
too new TOO NEW
SMCI
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses above HIGHEST of high over 252 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 50 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Do not take our word for it.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.